Avai 1-0 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates America Mineiro at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avai vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva plays host to Avai versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 10 April 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
America Mineiro's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, America Mineiro have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.07 xG and America Mineiro 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | America Mineiro attack 1.020 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 0.916. Data: 0 Avai games / 38 America Mineiro games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Avai 35% | Draw 31% | America Mineiro 35%. Fair-value odds: Avai 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | America Mineiro 2.86. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 35% | Draw 31% | America Mineiro 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Avai 1.07 / America Mineiro 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | America Mineiro attack 1.020 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.295 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.07
America Mineiro xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs America Mineiro kick off?
Avai vs America Mineiro kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs America Mineiro?
Avai 1 - 0 America Mineiro.
Where is Avai vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs America Mineiro part of?
Avai vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 35% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Avai vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Avai and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and America Mineiro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avai and America Mineiro in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. America Mineiro away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Avai's attack rating (0.85) and America Mineiro's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (1.02x) against Avai's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
35%
2.89
31%
3.28
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Avai xG
Total xG
2.14
1.07
America Mineiro xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Avai and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Avai and 1.07 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Pre-Season
America Mineiro
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Avai
0
Draws
1
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and America Mineiro?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 1, America Mineiro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avai and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2022, when America Mineiro 3-1 Avai.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Avai defy the odds to beat America Mineiro 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avai beat America Mineiro 1-0 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.07 xG and America Mineiro 1.07 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. America Mineiro landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against America Mineiro attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 35% | Draw 31% | America Mineiro 35%, with Avai to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.