Coritiba 3-0 Goias – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Goias fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coritiba and Goias meet at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.28 xG and Goias 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Goias attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 0.908. Data: 0 Coritiba games / 0 Goias games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Coritiba 44% | Draw 31% | Goias 25%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Goias 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coritiba at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coritiba if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Goias | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 44% | Draw 31% | Goias 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Coritiba 1.28 / Goias 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Goias attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.309 / away 0.908 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Goias xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Goias kick off?
Coritiba vs Goias kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Goias?
Coritiba 3 - 0 Goias.
Where is Coritiba vs Goias being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Goias part of?
Coritiba vs Goias is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Goias?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 44% chance of winning, Goias a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Goias?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Coritiba and Goias will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Goias have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Goias?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coritiba and Goias in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.85x the league average against Goias's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Goias's attack (0.85x) against Coritiba's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.21
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.17
0.89
Goias xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Goias?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Goias expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.89 for Goias, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Goias?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Goias
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coritiba won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Goias — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Coritiba
0
Draws
2
Goias
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Goias?
From 4 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 2, Goias have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Goias last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when Coritiba 0-1 Goias.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Goias away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Coritiba run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Goias.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Goias 3-0 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.28 xG and Goias 0.89 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Coritiba beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Goias landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Goias attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 44% | Draw 31% | Goias 25%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.