Mirassol vs Atletico-MG – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico-MG (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mirassol face Atletico-MG.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Mirassol versus Atletico-MG in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol at this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atletico-MG (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico-MG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico-MG have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Atletico-MG are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mirassol lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Atletico-MG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 63% versus Atletico-MG 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 50% | Atletico-MG 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.17 xG and Atletico-MG 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.977 / defence 1.167 | Atletico-MG attack 0.940 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Data: 62 Mirassol games / 62 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 31% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 37%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico-MG 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico-MG at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mirassol 70% | Atletico-MG 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 31% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Mirassol 1.17 / Atletico-MG 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.977 / def 1.167 | Atletico-MG attack 0.940 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Atletico-MG xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Wednesday 18 November 2026.
What competition is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG part of?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 31% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mirassol and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
Record (3 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico-MG 2W.
What form are Mirassol and Atletico-MG in?
Mirassol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Atletico-MG (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 0.98x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (0.94x) against Mirassol's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
31%
3.22
32%
3.10
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.46
1.29
Atletico-MG xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.29 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mirassol's recent record stands at 24W 20D 18L from 62 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico-MG, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 22L across 62 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Atletico-MG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Mirassol against 1.35 for Atletico-MG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 17W 11D 4L from 32 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atletico-MG's away record stands at 7W 6D 19L across 32 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico-MG's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mirassol are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.21 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Atletico-MG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 24W 20D 18L in their last 62 games (1.48 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 22W 18D 22L in their last 62 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Atletico-MG away?
Mirassol's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 1.94 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Atletico-MG go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Mirassol
1
Draws
2
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Atletico-MG have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Atletico-MG 3-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atletico-MG see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 72%, Atletico-MG 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mirassol) and 34% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Atletico-MG in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Atletico-MG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 72% of Mirassol's recent matches and 31% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mirassol's recent games and 34% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Atletico-MG tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Atletico-MG in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.