Gremio vs Bahia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Bahia meet at in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's home record at : 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Gremio are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Bahia (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Bahia are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gremio have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bahia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Gremio, 4 for Bahia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bahia — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 56% versus Bahia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 42% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.56 xG and Bahia 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.116 / defence 1.014 | Bahia attack 1.108 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Data: 62 Gremio games / 63 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 41% | Draw 29% | Bahia 30%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Bahia 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bahia (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 60% | Bahia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 41% | Draw 29% | Bahia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Gremio 1.56 / Bahia 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.116 / def 1.014 | Bahia attack 1.108 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Gremio (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bahia xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Bahia kick off?
Gremio vs Bahia is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Wednesday 18 November 2026.
What competition is Gremio vs Bahia part of?
Gremio vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 41% chance of winning, Bahia a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Gremio and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Bahia?
Record (9 meetings): Gremio 4W | Draws 1 | Bahia 4W.
What form are Gremio and Bahia in?
Gremio (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Bahia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gremio's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.11x) against Gremio's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.42
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.88
1.32
Bahia xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Gremio and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Gremio and 1.32 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 20W 17D 25L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia's form line: 27W 18D 17L from 62 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Gremio against 1.60 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.81 PPG from 31 outings (16W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bahia have gone 8W 10D 13L from 31 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gremio are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.39 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Bahia in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 20W 17D 25L in their last 62 games (1.24 PPG), while Bahia have gone 27W 18D 17L in their last 62 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Bahia away?
Gremio's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.81 PPG; Bahia away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Gremio or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bahia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Gremio
1
Draws
4
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 4, Bahia have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 58%, Bahia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Gremio) and 52% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Bahia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Gremio's games and 55% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gremio vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Gremio's recent games and 52% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Bahia tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bahia in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.