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Poisson rates Remo at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Remo vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.

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Full Analysis

Estadio Evandro Almeida plays host to Remo versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Current Form

Remo's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Remo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Remo have posted 2W 4D 3L at Estadio Evandro Almeida — 1.11 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Chapecoense-sc (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chapecoense-sc's away record: 0W 2D 6L from 8 road trips in Serie A this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Remo's 1.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Chapecoense-sc's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Remo 1W, Chapecoense-sc 0W, 2D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Remo winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Statistical Overview

Remo's cumulative Serie A record this campaign: 4W 6D 8L from 18 matches. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 18 games (17%). Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.

Chapecoense-sc's full-season record stands at 1W 6D 10L from 17 games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-2 (H) / – (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-4 (H) / 2-0 (A). Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 1 clean sheet this season (1 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 17 games (12%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

Remo lead on clean sheets this season (2 vs 1). Chapecoense-sc have been awarded 2 penalties this season (2 scored).

Where They Stand

The standings have Remo (18th, 18 pts) 2 places above Chapecoense-sc (20th, 9 pts) — a 9-point gap in Serie A.

On home turf, Remo's Serie A record reads 2W 4D 3L this term. Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 2D 6L on their travels. Remo: Relegation - Serie B. Chapecoense-sc: Relegation - Serie B.

Trading

Remo half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Chapecoense-sc half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Remo 59% and Chapecoense-sc 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Remo 47% | Chapecoense-sc 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.30 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.792 / defence 1.097 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.697 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.112. Remo's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Remo games / 17 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Remo 47% | Draw 29% | Chapecoense-sc 24%. Fair-value odds: Remo 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Chapecoense-sc 4.17. Remo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Remo as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Remo if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Remo 67% | Chapecoense-sc 50%.

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