Coritiba vs Santos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Santos at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coritiba vs Santos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coritiba host Santos at in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coritiba — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coritiba have posted 5W 3D 2L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Coritiba) versus 1.40 (Santos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Coritiba have won 1, Santos 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Coritiba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Coritiba trading profile (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Santos trading profile (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 52% versus Santos 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 48% | Santos 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.19 xG and Santos 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.917 / defence 1.132 | Santos attack 1.164 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Data: 25 Coritiba games / 62 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 27% | Draw 30% | Santos 43%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Santos 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Santos as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 70% | Santos 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 27% | Draw 30% | Santos 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Coritiba 1.19 / Santos 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.917 / def 1.132 | Santos attack 1.164 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Santos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Santos xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Santos kick off?
Coritiba vs Santos is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Wednesday 18 November 2026.
What competition is Coritiba vs Santos part of?
Coritiba vs Santos is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 27% chance of winning, Santos a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Coritiba and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Santos?
Record (5 meetings): Coritiba 1W | Draws 1 | Santos 3W.
What form are Coritiba and Santos in?
Coritiba (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Santos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.92) and Santos's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
27%
3.72
30%
3.36
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.74
1.55
Santos xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
6%
17.52
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.55 for Santos, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Coritiba have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 10W 7D 8L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santos's form line: 8W 8D 9L from 25 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coritiba on 1.48 PPG, Santos on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coritiba have posted 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L).
On the road, Santos have gone 2W 4D 5L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coritiba are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.48 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santos in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Santos in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 10W 7D 8L in their last 25 games (1.48 PPG), while Santos have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Santos away?
Coritiba's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.64 PPG; Santos away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coritiba and Santos runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Coritiba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coritiba's record when hosting Santos specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
1
Draws
3
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Santos?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Santos have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Santos 0-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Santos?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Coritiba at 64%, Santos at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Coritiba) and 73% (Santos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Santos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Coritiba's games and 73% of Santos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coritiba vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Coritiba's matches and 73% of Santos's.
Do Coritiba and Santos tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Santos in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.