Juventude 1-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 49%, yet in-form Bahia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juventude vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bahia make the trip to Estadio Alfredo Jaconi to face Juventude in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Friday 28 November 2025 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juventude have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Bahia's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bahia are 0.60 PPG clear of Juventude in recent Serie A fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Juventude, 3 for Bahia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 0–3 with Bahia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 58% versus Bahia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 51% | Bahia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.67 xG and Bahia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.897 / defence 1.259 | Bahia attack 0.911 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.010. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Juventude games / 73 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 49% | Draw 24% | Bahia 27%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Bahia 3.70. Juventude hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventude are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bahia (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 50% | Bahia 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Friday 28 Nov 2025, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 49% | Draw 24% | Bahia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Juventude 1.67 / Bahia 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.897 / def 1.259 | Bahia attack 0.911 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Juventude (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Bahia xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Bahia kick off?
Juventude vs Bahia kicked off at 22:00 on Friday 28 November 2025 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Bahia?
Juventude 1 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Juventude vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Bahia part of?
Juventude vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 49% chance of winning, Bahia a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Juventude and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Bahia?
Record (5 meetings): Juventude 1W | Draws 1 | Bahia 3W.
What form are Juventude and Bahia in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Bahia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.90x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.91x) against Juventude's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.12
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.83
1.16
Bahia xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
5%
19.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Juventude and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Juventude and 1.16 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juventude come into this having played 73 games, going 20W 18D 35L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Bahia sit at 1.49 PPG from 73 outings (31W 16D 26L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Bahia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Juventude's home form reads 14W 10D 12L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Bahia have taken 0.86 points per game from 36 outings (7W 10D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventude are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.32 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Bahia in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 20W 18D 35L in their last 73 games (1.07 PPG), while Bahia have gone 31W 16D 26L in their last 73 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Bahia away?
Juventude's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.44 PPG; Bahia away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Juventude or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Bahia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 28 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 3-0 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Juventude
2
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Bahia?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Bahia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 28 November 2025, when Juventude 1-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 56%, Bahia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Juventude) and 64% (Bahia).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Juventude's games and 67% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventude vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Juventude's recent games and 64% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Bahia tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bahia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude and Bahia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude and Bahia finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.67 xG and Bahia 1.16 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Bahia attack 0.91 / defence 1.27, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 49% | Draw 24% | Bahia 27%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 51%, Bahia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bahia's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.