Bahia 2-0 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bahia at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bahia vs Sport Recife encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 37 as Bahia welcome Sport Recife to Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 3 December 2025 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bahia have posted 7W 1D 2L at Arena Fonte Nova — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sport Recife stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sport Recife away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Bahia have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Bahia have won 0, Sport Recife 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bahia in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 53% versus Sport Recife 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 53% | Sport Recife 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 2.19 xG and Sport Recife 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.099 / defence 0.860 | Sport Recife attack 0.714 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.014. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Bahia games / 36 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 73% | Draw 17% | Sport Recife 9%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Sport Recife 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Sport Recife lead the H2H ledger, but Bahia carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 40% | Sport Recife 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Dec 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 73% | Draw 17% | Sport Recife 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 41% | xG Bahia 2.19 / Sport Recife 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.099 / def 0.860 | Sport Recife attack 0.714 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Bahia (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Sport Recife xG
41%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Sport Recife kick off?
Bahia vs Sport Recife kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 3 December 2025 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Sport Recife?
Bahia 2 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is Bahia vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Sport Recife part of?
Bahia vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 73% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bahia and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Sport Recife?
Record (3 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 1 | Sport Recife 2W.
What form are Bahia and Sport Recife in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Sport Recife (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bahia's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Sport Recife's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 3-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
73%
1.36
17%
5.72
9%
10.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.81
0.62
Sport Recife xG
1.36
73%
Home win
5.72
17%
Draw
10.94
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
11%
8.91
Win to Nil
39%
2.54
1%
97.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bahia and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Bahia and 0.62 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Sport Recife?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bahia come into this having played 36 games, going 16W 9D 11L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Sport Recife sit at 0.47 PPG from 36 outings (2W 11D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Bahia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bahia's home form reads 13W 3D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sport Recife have taken 0.39 points per game from 18 outings (1W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.78 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Sport Recife
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 games (1.58 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 2W 11D 23L in their last 36 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Sport Recife away?
Bahia's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.33 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.39 PPG.
Have Bahia or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Sport Recife runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bahia's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bahia
1
Draws
2
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Sport Recife have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2025, when Bahia 2-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Sport Recife?
Sport Recife have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 50%, Sport Recife 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bahia) and 50% (Sport Recife).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sport Recife in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bahia's recent matches and 44% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bahia's recent games and 50% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Sport Recife tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sport Recife.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Sport Recife 2-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 2.19 xG and Sport Recife 0.62 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.10 / defence 0.86 against Sport Recife attack 0.71 / defence 1.33, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 73% | Draw 17% | Sport Recife 9%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 53%, Sport Recife 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sport Recife's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.47. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.