RB Bragantino 0-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC meet at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 26 November 2025 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
RB Bragantino (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, RB Bragantino have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortaleza EC away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — RB Bragantino register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Fortaleza EC in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for RB Bragantino, 5 for Fortaleza EC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 1–3 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 61% versus Fortaleza EC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 53% | Fortaleza EC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.68 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.967 / defence 1.226 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.262 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.018. Fortaleza EC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fortaleza EC have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 73 RB Bragantino games / 72 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 41% | Draw 23% | Fortaleza EC 36%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Fortaleza EC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 70% | Fortaleza EC 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Nov 2025, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 41% | Draw 23% | Fortaleza EC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG RB Bragantino 1.68 / Fortaleza EC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.967 / def 1.226 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.262 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Fortaleza EC xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 26 November 2025 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
RB Bragantino 0 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC part of?
RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 41% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
Record (9 meetings): RB Bragantino 3W | Draws 1 | Fortaleza EC 5W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (0.97) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (1.26x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 73/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
41%
2.47
23%
4.31
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
3.25
1.57
Fortaleza EC xG
2.47
41%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.57 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 23W 19D 30L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 27W 21D 24L from 72 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.42 for Fortaleza EC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.64 PPG from 36 outings (16W 11D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 7W 13D 16L from 36 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.25 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 23W 19D 30L in their last 72 games (1.22 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 27W 21D 24L in their last 72 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Fortaleza EC away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.64 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fortaleza EC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
6
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Fortaleza EC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2025, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 61%, Fortaleza EC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (RB Bragantino) and 58% (Fortaleza EC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Fortaleza EC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of RB Bragantino's games and 67% of Fortaleza EC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of RB Bragantino's matches and 58% of Fortaleza EC's.
Do RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat RB Bragantino 0-1 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.68 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.57 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.26 / defence 1.20, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 41% | Draw 23% | Fortaleza EC 36%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fortaleza EC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 53%, Fortaleza EC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.22 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.