🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Cruzeiro at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ceara vs Cruzeiro encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Cruzeiro make the trip to Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo to face Ceara in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 00:00 UTC.

Form

Ceara (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Ceara's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Cruzeiro's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 6D 0L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Cruzeiro away from home this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cruzeiro are 0.70 PPG clear of Ceara in recent Serie A fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ceara lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 2–1 with Ceara winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Ceara — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Cruzeiro — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 37% versus Cruzeiro 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 29% | Cruzeiro 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 0.76 xG and Cruzeiro 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.738 / defence 1.064 | Cruzeiro attack 1.081 / defence 0.695. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.997. Ceara's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cruzeiro's defence strength of 0.695 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 Ceara games / 73 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ceara 24% | Draw 31% | Cruzeiro 45%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Cruzeiro 2.22. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cruzeiro are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 40% | Cruzeiro 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights