Cruzeiro 0-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cruzeiro and Coritiba meet at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 July 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cruzeiro have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Cruzeiro have gone 3W 0D 4L this season (7 games, 1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Coritiba's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Coritiba have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Cruzeiro, 0.90 for Coritiba — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Cruzeiro — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Coritiba — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 29% versus Coritiba 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cruzeiro 36% | Coritiba 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.26 xG and Coritiba 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 0.623 / defence 1.038 | Coritiba attack 1.021 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.018. Cruzeiro's attack strength of 0.623 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing Cruzeiro's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Cruzeiro games / 52 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 40% | Draw 28% | Coritiba 32%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Coritiba 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cruzeiro at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cruzeiro 14% | Coritiba 80%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 40% | Draw 28% | Coritiba 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Cruzeiro 1.26 / Coritiba 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 0.623 / def 1.038 | Coritiba attack 1.021 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Coritiba xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Coritiba kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Coritiba kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
Cruzeiro 0 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Coritiba part of?
Cruzeiro vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 40% chance of winning, Coritiba a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cruzeiro and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cruzeiro and Coritiba in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Coritiba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cruzeiro's attack rating (0.62) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (1.02x) against Cruzeiro's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.58
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.34
1.08
Coritiba xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.08 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Cruzeiro have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 6W 3D 5L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba's form line: 2W 4D 8L from 14 games, 0.71 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cruzeiro are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cruzeiro have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L).
On the road, Coritiba have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cruzeiro have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Coritiba in 71%.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 games (1.50 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Coritiba away?
Cruzeiro's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.29 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Coritiba in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cruzeiro have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Coritiba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cruzeiro
1
Draws
2
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Coritiba?
From 4 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 1, Coritiba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Coritiba 0-1 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Coritiba?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 14%, Coritiba 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Cruzeiro) and 86% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 86% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 86% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Coritiba tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cruzeiro's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 15, as Cruzeiro and Coritiba drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.26 xG and Coritiba 1.08 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cruzeiro fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Coritiba landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.62 / defence 1.04 against Coritiba attack 1.02 / defence 1.49, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 40% | Draw 28% | Coritiba 32%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 36%, Coritiba 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Coritiba's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cruzeiro arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.