Internacional 2-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Internacional (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Internacional face Bahia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 1 as Internacional welcome Bahia to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Internacional — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Internacional have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bahia have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Internacional carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Internacional, 1 for Bahia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Bahia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Internacional in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bahia in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 50% versus Bahia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 45% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.64 xG and Bahia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.088 / defence 1.013 | Bahia attack 1.082 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.116. Data: 38 Internacional games / 38 Bahia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Internacional 47% | Draw 24% | Bahia 29%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Bahia 3.45. Internacional hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Internacional 60% | Bahia 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 47% | Draw 24% | Bahia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Internacional 1.64 / Bahia 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.088 / def 1.013 | Bahia attack 1.082 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Internacional (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Bahia xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Bahia kick off?
Internacional vs Bahia kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Bahia?
Internacional 2 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Internacional vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Bahia part of?
Internacional vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 47% chance of winning, Bahia a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Internacional and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Bahia?
Record (4 meetings): Internacional 3W | Draws 0 | Bahia 1W.
What form are Internacional and Bahia in?
Internacional (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Bahia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Internacional's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.11
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.86
1.22
Bahia xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Internacional and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Internacional and 1.22 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Internacional's recent record stands at 15W 10D 13L from 38 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 18L across 38 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Internacional on 1.45 PPG, Bahia on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Internacional have managed 9W 5D 5L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 4W 3D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Internacional are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.32 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Bahia in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Bahia have gone 12W 8D 18L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Bahia away?
Internacional's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.68 PPG; Bahia away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Internacional's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Internacional
2
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Internacional have won 4, Bahia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Internacional 0-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Bahia?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Internacional see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 53%, Bahia 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Internacional) and 47% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Internacional have failed to score in 32% of games; Bahia in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Internacional's recent matches and 37% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Internacional's recent games and 47% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Bahia tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Bahia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Bahia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Bahia 2-1 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.64 xG and Bahia 1.22 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Bahia attack 1.08 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 47% | Draw 24% | Bahia 29%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 45%, Bahia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.45 PPG, Bahia 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.