Fluminense 2-2 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Bragantino make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fluminense have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fluminense at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, RB Bragantino have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Fluminense against 1.00 for RB Bragantino. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Fluminense have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with RB Bragantino managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with RB Bragantino winning.
The historical record gives Fluminense a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 43% versus RB Bragantino 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 47% | RB Bragantino 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.39 xG and RB Bragantino 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.096 / defence 1.036 | RB Bragantino attack 0.970 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.106. Data: 38 Fluminense games / 38 RB Bragantino games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fluminense 43% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 30%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | RB Bragantino 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 60% | RB Bragantino 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 43% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Fluminense 1.39 / RB Bragantino 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.096 / def 1.036 | RB Bragantino attack 0.970 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.11
RB Bragantino xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Fluminense 2 - 2 RB Bragantino.
Where is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino part of?
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 43% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fluminense and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
Record (5 meetings): Fluminense 4W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 1W.
What form are Fluminense and RB Bragantino in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fluminense's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.97x) against Fluminense's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.67
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.50
1.11
RB Bragantino xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fluminense and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.11 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense's recent record stands at 37W 15D 24L from 76 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
RB Bragantino, meanwhile, have gone 28W 22D 26L across 76 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Fluminense against 1.39 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 25W 7D 6L from 38 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
RB Bragantino's away record stands at 9W 12D 17L across 38 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 37W 15D 24L in their last 76 games (1.66 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 28W 22D 26L in their last 76 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or RB Bragantino away?
Fluminense's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.16 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Fluminense or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fluminense
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Fluminense 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 53%, RB Bragantino 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Fluminense) and 47% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Fluminense's recent matches and 53% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Fluminense's recent games and 47% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fluminense and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 1, as Fluminense and RB Bragantino drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.39 xG and RB Bragantino 1.11 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. RB Bragantino outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against RB Bragantino attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 43% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 30%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 47%, RB Bragantino 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.66 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fluminense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.