Vitoria 0-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio Manoel Barradas to take on Vitoria. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024, 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.19 xG and Palmeiras 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Palmeiras attack 1.061 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.129. Data: 0 Vitoria games / 38 Palmeiras games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vitoria 32% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 40%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Palmeiras 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Manoel Barradas • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 32% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Vitoria 1.19 / Palmeiras 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Palmeiras attack 1.061 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Palmeiras xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Palmeiras kick off?
Vitoria vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Palmeiras?
Vitoria 0 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Vitoria vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What competition is Vitoria vs Palmeiras part of?
Vitoria vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 32% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vitoria and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitoria and Palmeiras in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Palmeiras away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vitoria's attack at 0.85x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Vitoria's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (0/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
32%
3.17
28%
3.56
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.57
1.38
Palmeiras xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.56
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.38 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitoria and Palmeiras runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2026, when Palmeiras won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitoria's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vitoria
2
Draws
3
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Palmeiras?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 1, Palmeiras have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Vitoria 0-4 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Vitoria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Vitoria 0-1 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.19 xG and Palmeiras 1.38 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vitoria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Palmeiras attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 0/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 32% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 40%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.