Gremio 0-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 35%, yet in-form Flamengo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gremio vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gremio host Flamengo at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 21:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Gremio have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gremio at Arena do Grêmio this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Flamengo's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Flamengo — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Gremio, 2 for Flamengo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 3–2 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gremio in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Flamengo in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 54% versus Flamengo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 55% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.35 xG and Flamengo 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.081 / defence 1.143 | Flamengo attack 1.244 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 0.901. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Gremio games / 40 Flamengo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gremio 35% | Draw 33% | Flamengo 32%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Flamengo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Flamengo (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gremio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 70% | Flamengo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 35% | Draw 33% | Flamengo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Gremio 1.35 / Flamengo 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.081 / def 1.143 | Flamengo attack 1.244 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.424 / away 0.901 • Poisson stance: Gremio (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Flamengo xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Flamengo kick off?
Gremio vs Flamengo kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Flamengo?
Gremio 0 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Gremio vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Flamengo part of?
Gremio vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 35% chance of winning, Flamengo a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gremio and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Flamengo?
Record (6 meetings): Gremio 3W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Gremio and Flamengo in?
Gremio (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gremio's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
35%
2.86
33%
3.00
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.63
1.28
Flamengo xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gremio and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Gremio and 1.28 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 33W 14D 29L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 39W 19D 18L from 76 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.49 PPG, Flamengo on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.92 PPG from 38 outings (23W 4D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 18W 9D 11L from 38 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.54 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 33W 14D 29L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 39W 19D 18L in their last 76 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Flamengo away?
Gremio's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.92 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Gremio or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Flamengo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gremio and Flamengo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when Flamengo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gremio's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Gremio
2
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 3, Flamengo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Gremio 0-1 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 47%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gremio) and 58% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gremio's recent matches and 60% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gremio's matches and 58% of Flamengo's.
Do Gremio and Flamengo tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Gremio 0-2 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.35 xG and Flamengo 1.28 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gremio fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.08 / defence 1.14 against Flamengo attack 1.24 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 35% | Draw 33% | Flamengo 32%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 55%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.49 PPG, Flamengo 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.