Vitoria 1-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitoria at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Flamengo travel to Barradao to take on Vitoria. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025, 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitoria stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitoria have posted 5W 2D 3L at Barradao — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Flamengo's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vitoria 1.90 PPG, Flamengo 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vitoria, 1 for Flamengo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vitoria trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Flamengo trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitoria 58% and Flamengo 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 50% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.22 xG and Flamengo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.989 / defence 1.017 | Flamengo attack 1.141 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 0.881. Data: 39 Vitoria games / 39 Flamengo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vitoria 37% | Draw 36% | Flamengo 27%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Flamengo 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitoria are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Vitoria 50% | Flamengo 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Barradao • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 37% | Draw 36% | Flamengo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Vitoria 1.22 / Flamengo 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.989 / def 1.017 | Flamengo attack 1.141 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.361 / away 0.881 • Poisson stance: Vitoria (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Flamengo xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Flamengo kick off?
Vitoria vs Flamengo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Barradao.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Vitoria 1 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Vitoria vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Barradao.
What competition is Vitoria vs Flamengo part of?
Vitoria vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 37% chance of winning, Flamengo a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Vitoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vitoria and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Flamengo?
Record (2 meetings): Vitoria 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Vitoria and Flamengo in?
Vitoria (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitoria's attack at 0.99x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Vitoria's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitoria Win
37%
2.71
36%
2.78
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.24
1.02
Flamengo xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.02 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitoria's recent record stands at 13W 8D 17L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 8L across 38 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitoria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vitoria have managed 8W 3D 8L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 9W 5D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitoria are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.61 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Flamengo in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 20W 10D 8L in their last 38 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.42 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2025, when Flamengo won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitoria's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vitoria
1
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Flamengo?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 0, Flamengo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Vitoria.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitoria 53%, Flamengo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vitoria) and 53% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 32%; Vitoria have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Vitoria's games and 63% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitoria vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vitoria's recent games and 53% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Flamengo tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Vitoria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Vitoria 1-2 at Barradao, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.22 xG and Flamengo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Flamengo attack 1.14 / defence 0.91, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 37% | Draw 36% | Flamengo 27%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 50%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.