🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Vitoria at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Flamengo travel to Barradao to take on Vitoria. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025, 22:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitoria stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Vitoria have posted 5W 2D 3L at Barradao — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Flamengo's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vitoria 1.90 PPG, Flamengo 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vitoria, 1 for Flamengo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Vitoria trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Flamengo trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitoria 58% and Flamengo 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 50% | Flamengo 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.22 xG and Flamengo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.989 / defence 1.017 | Flamengo attack 1.141 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 0.881. Data: 39 Vitoria games / 39 Flamengo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Vitoria 37% | Draw 36% | Flamengo 27%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Flamengo 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Vitoria are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Vitoria 50% | Flamengo 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights