Ceara 2-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Ceara take on Gremio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Gremio travel to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to take on Ceara. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gremio away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ceara, 1 for Gremio and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.11 xG and Gremio 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Gremio attack 0.998 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 0.980. Data: 1 Ceara games / 39 Gremio games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ceara 32% | Draw 35% | Gremio 33%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Gremio 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 32% | Draw 35% | Gremio 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Ceara 1.11 / Gremio 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Gremio attack 0.998 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.320 / away 0.980 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Gremio xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Gremio kick off?
Ceara vs Gremio kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Gremio?
Ceara 2 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Ceara vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Gremio part of?
Ceara vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 32% chance of winning, Gremio a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ceara and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Gremio?
Record (2 meetings): Ceara 1W | Draws 0 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Ceara and Gremio in?
Gremio (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Gremio away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ceara's attack at 0.86x the league average against Gremio's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.12
35%
2.84
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.23
1.12
Gremio xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ceara and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ceara and 1.12 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Pre-Season
Gremio
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ceara and Gremio runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ceara's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ceara
1
Draws
1
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Gremio?
From 4 meetings on record, Ceara have won 2, Gremio have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Gremio 0-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Gremio?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ceara cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Gremio 2-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.11 xG and Gremio 1.12 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ceara beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gremio landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Gremio attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 32% | Draw 35% | Gremio 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Ceara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.