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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 16 April 2025 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gremio's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.19 xG and Gremio 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.826 / defence 1.131 | Gremio attack 0.884 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 0.933. Data: 3 Mirassol games / 41 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 38% | Draw 37% | Gremio 25%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.63 | Draw 2.70 | Gremio 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Gremio (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L • Gremio away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 2
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 38% | Draw 37% | Gremio 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Mirassol 1.19 / Gremio 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.826 / def 1.131 | Gremio attack 0.884 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.390 / away 0.933 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Gremio xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Gremio kick off?
Mirassol vs Gremio kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 16 April 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Gremio?
Mirassol 4 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Mirassol vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Gremio part of?
Mirassol vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 38% chance of winning, Gremio a 25% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mirassol and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Gremio?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Mirassol and Gremio in?
• Gremio (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L • Gremio away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 2
What do the betting odds say about Mirassol vs Gremio?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture