Gremio 5-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Gremio welcome Coritiba to Arena do Grêmio. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Gremio have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gremio haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gremio's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Arena do Grêmio this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coritiba stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Coritiba have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Gremio are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Gremio trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Coritiba trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 45% versus Coritiba 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 45% | Coritiba 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 2.33 xG and Coritiba 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.208 / defence 1.106 | Coritiba attack 0.966 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.046. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Gremio games / 49 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 64% | Draw 20% | Coritiba 16%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Coritiba 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Gremio (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 60% | Coritiba 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 64% | Draw 20% | Coritiba 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG Gremio 2.33 / Coritiba 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.208 / def 1.106 | Coritiba attack 0.966 / def 1.397 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Gremio (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Coritiba xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Coritiba kick off?
Gremio vs Coritiba kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 25 June 2023 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Coritiba?
Gremio 5 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Gremio vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Coritiba part of?
Gremio vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 64% chance of winning, Coritiba a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Gremio and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gremio and Coritiba in?
Gremio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gremio's attack at 1.21x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
64%
1.57
20%
4.98
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Gremio xG
Total xG
3.44
1.12
Coritiba xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
10%
10.24
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
2%
63.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Gremio and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Gremio and 1.12 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 12W 7D 19L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. Gremio haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Coritiba's form line: 12W 6D 20L from 38 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.13 PPG, Coritiba on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coritiba have gone 1W 2D 16L from 19 away games — 0.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.03 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 12W 7D 19L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 12W 6D 20L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Coritiba away?
Gremio's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.58 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gremio and Coritiba runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gremio have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2023, when Gremio won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gremio's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Gremio
0
Draws
0
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Coritiba?
From 3 meetings on record, Gremio have won 3, Coritiba have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Gremio 1-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Coritiba?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 47%, Coritiba 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gremio) and 58% (Coritiba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gremio have failed to score in 26% of games; Coritiba in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gremio's recent matches and 53% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gremio's matches and 58% of Coritiba's.
Do Gremio and Coritiba tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gremio run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Coritiba 5-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 2.33 xG and Coritiba 1.12 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.21 / defence 1.11 against Coritiba attack 0.97 / defence 1.40, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 64% | Draw 20% | Coritiba 16%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 45%, Coritiba 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Coritiba's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.13 PPG, Coritiba 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Coritiba (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.