Palmeiras 0-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Palmeiras welcome Botafogo to Allianz Parque. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Botafogo stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Botafogo have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Palmeiras, 0 for Botafogo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Botafogo in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 45% versus Botafogo 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 50% | Botafogo 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.62 xG and Botafogo 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.290 / defence 0.974 | Botafogo attack 1.045 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.046. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Palmeiras games / 49 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 49% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 24%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Botafogo 4.17. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Palmeiras 40% | Botafogo 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 49% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Palmeiras 1.62 / Botafogo 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.290 / def 0.974 | Botafogo attack 1.045 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Botafogo xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Botafogo kick off?
Palmeiras vs Botafogo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 25 June 2023 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Palmeiras 0 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Palmeiras vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Botafogo part of?
Palmeiras vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 49% chance of winning, Botafogo a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Palmeiras and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Botafogo?
Record (2 meetings): Palmeiras 2W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Botafogo in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Botafogo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.75
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.68
1.06
Botafogo xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
5%
20.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.06 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 23W 12D 3L from 38 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Botafogo, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 15L across 38 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Botafogo heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 13W 4D 2L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Botafogo's away record stands at 9W 4D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.08 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 23W 12D 3L in their last 38 games (2.13 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Botafogo away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.26 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Botafogo in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jun 2022, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
1
Draws
3
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Botafogo?
From 9 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Botafogo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Botafogo?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 37%, Botafogo 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Palmeiras) and 42% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Botafogo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 42% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Palmeiras's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Botafogo tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Botafogo defy the odds to beat Palmeiras 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Palmeiras 0-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.62 xG and Botafogo 1.06 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.29 / defence 0.97 against Botafogo attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 49% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 24%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Botafogo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 50%, Botafogo 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Botafogo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Botafogo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.