Bahia 1-2 Gremio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bahia at 56%, yet in-form Gremio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bahia vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova plays host to Bahia versus Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 1 July 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 2W 2D 2L this season (6 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's away record: 2W 0D 3L from 5 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gremio are 0.80 PPG clear of Bahia in recent Serie A fixtures (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bahia have seen both teams score in 83% of their games, Gremio in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bahia 1W, Gremio 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Bahia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bahia 58% and Gremio 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bahia 58% | Gremio 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.89 xG and Gremio 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.013 / defence 1.180 | Gremio attack 0.895 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.035. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Bahia games / 12 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 56% | Draw 22% | Gremio 22%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Gremio 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gremio (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 83% | Gremio 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jul 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 56% | Draw 22% | Gremio 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Bahia 1.89 / Gremio 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.013 / def 1.180 | Gremio attack 0.895 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Bahia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Gremio xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Gremio kick off?
Bahia vs Gremio kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 1 July 2023 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Gremio?
Bahia 1 - 2 Gremio.
Where is Bahia vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Gremio part of?
Bahia vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 56% chance of winning, Gremio a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bahia and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Gremio?
Record (2 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 0 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Bahia and Gremio in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Gremio (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bahia's attack at 1.01x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.90x) against Bahia's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.47
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.98
1.09
Gremio xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
3%
30.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Bahia and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Bahia and 1.09 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bahia come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 3D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Bahia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bahia's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.83 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gremio in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Gremio in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Gremio have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Gremio away?
Bahia's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.60 PPG; Gremio away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Bahia
1
Draws
4
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 4, Gremio have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Bahia, 60% for Gremio — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Bahia and 80% for Gremio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gremio in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Gremio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Bahia's games and 60% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bahia vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Bahia's matches and 80% of Gremio's.
Do Bahia and Gremio tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Gremio in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gremio defy the odds to beat Bahia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Bahia 1-2 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.89 xG and Gremio 1.09 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bahia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Gremio outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.01 / defence 1.18 against Gremio attack 0.90 / defence 1.34, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 56% | Draw 22% | Gremio 22%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Gremio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 58%, Gremio 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Gremio's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gremio arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.