Goias 1-2 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Goias at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Goias and Coritiba meet at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 4 July 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Goias's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Goias, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Goias's home record at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Coritiba (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Goias 1W, Coritiba 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Goias winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Goias — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Coritiba — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 52% versus Coritiba 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Goias 44% | Coritiba 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 2.17 xG and Coritiba 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 1.011 / defence 1.362 | Coritiba attack 0.967 / defence 1.554. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.025. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.554 — this is suppressing Goias's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Goias games / 50 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 56% | Draw 20% | Coritiba 23%. Fair-value odds: Goias 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Coritiba 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Goias (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Goias at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Goias 40% | Coritiba 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Jul 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 56% | Draw 20% | Coritiba 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Goias 2.17 / Coritiba 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 1.011 / def 1.362 | Coritiba attack 0.967 / def 1.554 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Goias (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Coritiba xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Coritiba kick off?
Goias vs Coritiba kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 4 July 2023 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Coritiba?
Goias 1 - 2 Coritiba.
Where is Goias vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Coritiba part of?
Goias vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 56% chance of winning, Coritiba a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Goias the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Goias and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Coritiba?
Record (2 meetings): Goias 1W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are Goias and Coritiba in?
Goias (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Coritiba (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Goias's attack rating (1.01) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.55), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (0.97x) against Goias's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Goias Win
56%
1.78
20%
4.89
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Goias xG
Total xG
3.52
1.35
Coritiba xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
3%
37.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Goias and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Goias and 1.35 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Goias's recent record stands at 14W 15D 21L from 50 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Goias is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 28L across 50 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Goias against 0.92 for Coritiba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Goias have managed 8W 9D 7L from 24 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coritiba's away record stands at 1W 3D 20L across 24 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Goias come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Goias are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 0.96 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 14W 15D 21L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 12W 10D 28L in their last 50 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Coritiba away?
Goias's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 1.38 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coritiba won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Goias have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Coritiba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Goias
0
Draws
2
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Coritiba?
From 4 meetings on record, Goias have won 2, Coritiba have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when Coritiba 0-1 Goias.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Goias are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Goias 58%, Coritiba 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Goias) and 62% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Coritiba in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Coritiba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Goias's games and 58% of Coritiba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Goias vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Goias's recent games and 62% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Goias and Coritiba tend to score early?
Goias have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coritiba defy the odds to beat Goias 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Goias 1-2 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 2.17 xG and Coritiba 1.35 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Goias fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 1.01 / defence 1.36 against Coritiba attack 0.97 / defence 1.55, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 56% | Draw 20% | Coritiba 23%, with Goias to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Coritiba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 44%, Coritiba 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Coritiba's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Goias 1.14 PPG, Coritiba 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coritiba win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.