Goias 1-1 Avai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Goias at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Avai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Avai make the trip to Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro to face Goias in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Goias (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Goias, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Goias's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Goias are significantly better at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro than their overall form suggests.
Avai's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Avai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avai away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Goias against 0.80 for Avai. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Goias lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2022, ended 2–3 with Avai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Goias goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Avai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 52% versus Avai 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Goias 43% | Avai 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 1.70 xG and Avai 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.932 / defence 1.157 | Avai attack 0.682 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 0.943. Avai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Goias's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Goias games / 21 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 60% | Draw 24% | Avai 16%. Fair-value odds: Goias 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Avai 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Goias (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Goias as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Goias 70% | Avai 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 60% | Draw 24% | Avai 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Goias 1.70 / Avai 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.932 / def 1.157 | Avai attack 0.682 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.336 / away 0.943 • Poisson stance: Goias (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Goias xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Avai xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Avai kick off?
Goias vs Avai kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Avai?
Goias 1 - 1 Avai.
Where is Goias vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Avai part of?
Goias vs Avai is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 60% chance of winning, Avai a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Goias the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Goias and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Avai?
Record (1 meetings): Goias 0W | Draws 0 | Avai 1W.
What form are Goias and Avai in?
Goias (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Avai (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Goias's attack at 0.93x the league average against Avai's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Avai's attack (0.68x) against Goias's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Goias Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.23
16%
6.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Goias xG
Total xG
2.45
0.74
Avai xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
6.23
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
3%
34.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Goias and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Goias and 0.74 for Avai, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Avai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Goias have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 6W 7D 8L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Goias is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Avai's form line: 6W 4D 11L from 21 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Avai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Goias against 1.05 for Avai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Goias have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Goias are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Avai have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Avai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Goias come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Goias are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Avai are on 1.05 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Avai in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Blended
Avai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Avai in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Avai have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Avai away?
Goias's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 1.60 PPG; Avai away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Goias
1
Draws
1
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, Goias have won 0, Avai have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2022, when Goias 1-1 Avai.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Avai?
Avai have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Goias are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Goias 70%, Avai 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Goias) and 60% (Avai).
On the defensive side: Avai in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Avai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Goias's games and 40% of Avai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Goias vs Avai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Goias's recent games and 60% of Avai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Goias and Avai tend to score early?
Goias have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Avai in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Goias and Avai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 22, as Goias and Avai drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 1.70 xG and Avai 0.74 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against Avai attack 0.68 / defence 1.37, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 60% | Draw 24% | Avai 16%, with Goias to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 43%, Avai 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Avai's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Goias 1.19 PPG, Avai 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Avai (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.