Flamengo 5-0 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Flamengo welcome Atletico Paranaense to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Flamengo have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.40 PPG (Flamengo) versus 2.00 (Atletico Paranaense). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Flamengo, 1 for Atletico Paranaense and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Atletico Paranaense in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 46% versus Atletico Paranaense 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | Atletico Paranaense 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.79 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.364 / defence 0.788 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.142 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 0.933. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Flamengo's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Flamengo games / 59 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 60% | Draw 23% | Atletico Paranaense 17%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Atletico Paranaense 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 30% | Atletico Paranaense 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 60% | Draw 23% | Atletico Paranaense 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Flamengo 1.79 / Atletico Paranaense 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.364 / def 0.788 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.142 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.308 / away 0.933 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Atletico Paranaense xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Flamengo 5 - 0 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 60% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (3 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 1 | Atletico Paranaense 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense in?
Flamengo (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.36x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.38
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.63
0.84
Atletico Paranaense xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
3%
35.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.84 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 32W 11D 16L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense's form line: 24W 12D 23L from 59 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.81 PPG, Atletico Paranaense on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 2.14 PPG from 29 outings (20W 2D 7L).
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 9W 4D 16L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.17 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 32W 11D 16L in their last 59 games (1.81 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 24W 12D 23L in their last 59 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Flamengo's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.14 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Flamengo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Flamengo
3
Draws
3
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 3, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Flamengo 31% BTTS, Atletico Paranaense 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Flamengo) and 41% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Atletico Paranaense in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Flamengo's recent matches and 38% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Flamengo's recent games and 41% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Atletico Paranaense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Atletico Paranaense 5-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.79 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.84 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atletico Paranaense landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.36 / defence 0.79 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.14 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 60% | Draw 23% | Atletico Paranaense 17%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, Atletico Paranaense 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.81 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.