Ceara 0-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ceara at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ceara vs Fortaleza EC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Fortaleza EC travel to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to take on Ceara. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ceara stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ceara 1.10 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Ceara: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Fortaleza EC, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2022, ended 1–0 with Ceara winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ceara and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Ceara trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fortaleza EC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 54% versus Fortaleza EC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 37% | Fortaleza EC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.36 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.908 / defence 1.082 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.143 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 0.933. Data: 59 Ceara games / 59 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 41% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 32%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Fortaleza EC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ceara as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 70% | Fortaleza EC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 41% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Ceara 1.36 / Fortaleza EC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.908 / def 1.082 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.143 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.308 / away 0.933 • Poisson stance: Ceara (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Fortaleza EC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Ceara vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Ceara 0 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Ceara vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Ceara vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 41% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ceara and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Fortaleza EC?
Record (3 meetings): Ceara 3W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 0W.
What form are Ceara and Fortaleza EC in?
Ceara (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ceara's attack rating (0.91) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
41%
2.41
27%
3.74
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.51
1.15
Fortaleza EC xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ceara and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ceara and 1.15 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ceara's recent record stands at 16W 27D 16L from 59 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 24L across 59 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ceara on 1.27 PPG, Fortaleza EC on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ceara have managed 12W 12D 5L from 29 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 9W 3D 17L across 29 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ceara are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.07 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Fortaleza EC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 16W 27D 16L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 22W 13D 24L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Ceara's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.66 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Ceara or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ceara and Fortaleza EC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Nov 2021, when Ceara won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ceara's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ceara
1
Draws
1
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Fortaleza EC?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 4, Fortaleza EC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2025, when Ceara 1-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Fortaleza EC?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 59%, Fortaleza EC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Ceara) and 55% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Fortaleza EC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Ceara's games and 55% of Fortaleza EC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ceara vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Ceara's recent games and 55% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat Ceara 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Ceara 0-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.36 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ceara fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.14 / defence 1.14, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 41% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 32%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fortaleza EC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 37%, Fortaleza EC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.27 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.