Fortaleza EC 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Palmeiras at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Palmeiras's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fortaleza EC at 1.30 PPG versus Palmeiras's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Fortaleza EC, 2 for Palmeiras and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortaleza EC trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 50% versus Palmeiras 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 46% | Palmeiras 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.13 xG and Palmeiras 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.008 / defence 0.707 | Palmeiras attack 1.210 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 0.898. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.768 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 0.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Fortaleza EC's defence rating of 0.707 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Fortaleza EC games / 42 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 37% | Palmeiras 22%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.44 | Draw 2.70 | Palmeiras 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortaleza EC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 30% | Palmeiras 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 37% | Palmeiras 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.13 / Palmeiras 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.008 / def 0.707 | Palmeiras attack 1.210 / def 0.768 | league avg home 1.461 / away 0.898 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Palmeiras xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 41% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 22% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Record (8 meetings): Fortaleza EC 3W | Draws 3 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.01) and Palmeiras's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
41%
2.44
37%
2.68
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
1.90
0.77
Palmeiras xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.77 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 34W 20D 22L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 42W 17D 17L from 76 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.61 PPG, Palmeiras on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 2.11 PPG from 38 outings (23W 11D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 16W 13D 9L from 38 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.63 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 34W 20D 22L in their last 76 games (1.61 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 42W 17D 17L in their last 76 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Palmeiras away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 2.11 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2022, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
3
Draws
4
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Palmeiras have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Palmeiras 4-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 45%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fortaleza EC) and 42% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Palmeiras in 40%; Palmeiras in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 42% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palmeiras defy the odds to beat Fortaleza EC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Fortaleza EC 1-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.13 xG and Palmeiras 0.77 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.01 / defence 0.71 against Palmeiras attack 1.21 / defence 0.77, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 37% | Palmeiras 22%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Palmeiras win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 46%, Palmeiras 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.61 PPG, Palmeiras 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palmeiras win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.