🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bahia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Bahia host Ceara at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 April 2025 at 00:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bahia, 0 for Ceara and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.54 xG and Ceara 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.877 / defence 1.024 | Ceara attack 1.024 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 0.903. Ceara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Bahia games / 4 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 32% | Ceara 20%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Ceara 5.00. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights