Vasco DA Gama 0-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo meet at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Vasco DA Gama's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Vasco DA Gama at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Flamengo away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Flamengo arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Flamengo have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Vasco DA Gama's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Flamengo have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Vasco DA Gama — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Flamengo — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 50% versus Flamengo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 43% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.29 xG and Flamengo 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.177 / defence 1.096 | Flamengo attack 1.310 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 0.905. Flamengo's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Vasco DA Gama games / 42 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 34% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 34%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Flamengo 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vasco DA Gama 50% | Flamengo 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 34% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.29 / Flamengo 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.177 / def 1.096 | Flamengo attack 1.310 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.463 / away 0.905 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Flamengo xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Vasco DA Gama 0 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 34% chance of winning, Flamengo a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
Record (4 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 3W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (1.18) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.31x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
34%
2.94
32%
3.16
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.59
1.30
Flamengo xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.30 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasco DA Gama's recent record stands at 26W 17D 33L from 76 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 39W 19D 18L across 76 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vasco DA Gama have managed 19W 7D 12L from 38 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Flamengo's away record stands at 18W 9D 11L across 38 trips, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.54 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 26W 17D 33L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 39W 19D 18L in their last 76 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Flamengo away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.68 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Flamengo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 1-6 on 2 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasco DA Gama have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Vasco DA Gama
4
Draws
3
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Flamengo have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Flamengo 2-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 47%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Vasco DA Gama) and 58% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 60% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 58% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vasco DA Gama's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 5, as Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.29 xG and Flamengo 1.30 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Flamengo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.18 / defence 1.10 against Flamengo attack 1.31 / defence 0.75, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 34% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 34%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 43%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.