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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Sport Recife take on Fortaleza EC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 6 as Sport Recife welcome Fortaleza EC to Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fortaleza EC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sport Recife, 2 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 1.07 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.714 / defence 1.219 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.025 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 0.910. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Sport Recife games / 43 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 31% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 34%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Fortaleza EC 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 2W • Goals trend: 1.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sport Recife 0 – 2 Fortaleza EC • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Sport Recife 0% / Draw 0% / Fortaleza EC 100% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Fortaleza EC (historical win rate 100%) but Poisson model rates Draw as more likely (home 31% / draw 35% / away 34%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 1.00/game (0% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.20 (38% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 48% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W • Fortaleza EC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | CS 1
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 31% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Sport Recife 1.07 / Fortaleza EC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.714 / def 1.219 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.025 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.445 / away 0.910 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Fortaleza EC xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Sport Recife 0 - 0 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 31% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC?
• Record (2 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 2W • Goals trend: 1.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sport Recife 0 – 2 Fortaleza EC • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Sport Recife 0% / Draw 0% / Fortaleza EC 100% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Fortaleza EC (historical win rate 100%) but Poisson model rates Draw as more likely (home 31% / draw 35% / away 34%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 1.00/game (0% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.20 (38% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 48% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC in?
• Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W • Fortaleza EC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | CS 1
What do the betting odds say about Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture