Fortaleza EC 3-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Flamengo at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Flamengo at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 September 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fortaleza EC at 1.70 PPG versus Flamengo's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fortaleza EC have won 1, Flamengo 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2022, ended 2–1 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Flamengo in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 43% versus Flamengo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 42% | Flamengo 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 0.89 xG and Flamengo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.806 / defence 0.922 | Flamengo attack 1.126 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 0.899. Data: 65 Fortaleza EC games / 65 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 32% | Draw 33% | Flamengo 35%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Flamengo 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 30% | Flamengo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Sep 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 32% | Draw 33% | Flamengo 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Fortaleza EC 0.89 / Flamengo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.806 / def 0.922 | Flamengo attack 1.126 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.293 / away 0.899 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Flamengo xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 28 September 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Fortaleza EC 3 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 32% chance of winning, Flamengo a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo?
Record (3 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Flamengo in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.81) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
32%
3.08
33%
3.06
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
1.82
0.93
Flamengo xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 15.1 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.93 for Flamengo, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortaleza EC's recent record stands at 25W 14D 26L from 65 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 34W 14D 17L across 65 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortaleza EC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fortaleza EC have managed 14W 10D 8L from 32 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 13W 11D 8L across 32 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.71 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Flamengo in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 25W 14D 26L in their last 65 games (1.37 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 34W 14D 17L in their last 65 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Flamengo away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.62 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Flamengo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Flamengo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 4, Flamengo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 31%, Flamengo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Fortaleza EC) and 53% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 62% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 53% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Flamengo tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat Flamengo 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Flamengo 3-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 0.89 xG and Flamengo 0.93 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Flamengo outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.81 / defence 0.92 against Flamengo attack 1.13 / defence 0.85, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 32% | Draw 33% | Flamengo 35%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Fortaleza EC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 42%, Flamengo 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Fortaleza EC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.