Flamengo 1-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Fluminense travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Flamengo have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Flamengo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Flamengo, 1 for Fluminense and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Fluminense trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus Fluminense 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 50% | Fluminense 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.98 xG and Fluminense 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.462 / defence 0.800 | Fluminense attack 1.061 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 0.891. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.462 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Flamengo games / 64 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 66% | Draw 21% | Fluminense 13%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Fluminense 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 30% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 66% | Draw 21% | Fluminense 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 46% | xG Flamengo 1.98 / Fluminense 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.462 / def 0.800 | Fluminense attack 1.061 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.288 / away 0.891 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Fluminense xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Fluminense kick off?
Flamengo vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Flamengo 1 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is Flamengo vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Fluminense part of?
Flamengo vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 66% chance of winning, Fluminense a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Flamengo and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
Record (2 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in?
Flamengo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.46x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
66%
1.51
21%
4.86
13%
7.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.74
0.76
Fluminense xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
7.51
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
2%
54.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.76 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 34W 14D 16L from 64 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 28W 15D 21L across 64 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.81 PPG, Fluminense on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 21W 3D 7L from 31 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 8W 8D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.22 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 34W 14D 16L in their last 64 games (1.81 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 28W 15D 21L in their last 64 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Fluminense away?
Flamengo's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.13 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Fluminense in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Fluminense runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Fluminense have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 32%, Fluminense 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Flamengo) and 36% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Fluminense in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Flamengo's recent matches and 39% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Flamengo's recent games and 36% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Fluminense tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat Flamengo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Flamengo 1-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.98 xG and Fluminense 0.76 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fluminense outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.46 / defence 0.80 against Fluminense attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 66% | Draw 21% | Fluminense 13%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 50%, Fluminense 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.81 PPG, Fluminense 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.