Goias 0-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Goias at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Goias host Botafogo at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 29 September 2022 at 01:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Goias — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Goias, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Goias's home record at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Goias 1.60 PPG, Botafogo 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Goias, 0 for Botafogo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Jun 2022, ended 2–1 with Goias winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Goias trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Botafogo trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 59% versus Botafogo 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Goias 41% | Botafogo 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 1.32 xG and Botafogo 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.888 / defence 1.187 | Botafogo attack 1.111 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.899. Data: 27 Goias games / 27 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 40% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 33%. Fair-value odds: Goias 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Botafogo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Goias at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Goias offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Goias 80% | Botafogo 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Sep 2022, 01:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 40% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Goias 1.32 / Botafogo 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.888 / def 1.187 | Botafogo attack 1.111 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.327 / away 0.899 • Poisson stance: Goias (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Botafogo xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Botafogo kick off?
Goias vs Botafogo kicked off at 01:45 on Thursday 29 September 2022 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Botafogo?
Goias 0 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Goias vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Botafogo part of?
Goias vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 40% chance of winning, Botafogo a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Goias the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Goias and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Botafogo?
Record (1 meetings): Goias 1W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 0W.
What form are Goias and Botafogo in?
Goias (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Botafogo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Goias's attack rating (0.89) and Botafogo's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Goias's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Goias Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.72
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Goias xG
Total xG
2.51
1.19
Botafogo xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Goias and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Goias and 1.19 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Goias's recent record stands at 9W 10D 8L from 27 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Goias is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Botafogo, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 11L across 27 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Goias on 1.37 PPG, Botafogo on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Goias have managed 5W 6D 2L from 13 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Botafogo's away record stands at 5W 3D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Goias are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.00 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Blended
Botafogo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 9W 10D 8L in their last 27 games (1.37 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Botafogo away?
Goias's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 1.62 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Goias and Botafogo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Goias's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Goias
1
Draws
1
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Botafogo?
From 4 meetings on record, Goias have won 2, Botafogo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2023, when Botafogo 1-1 Goias.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Botafogo?
Goias have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Goias are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Goias 77%, Botafogo 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Goias) and 38% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Botafogo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Goias's games and 46% of Botafogo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Goias vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Goias's recent games and 38% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Goias and Botafogo tend to score early?
Goias have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Botafogo defy the odds to beat Goias 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Goias 0-1 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 1.32 xG and Botafogo 1.19 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Goias fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Botafogo attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 40% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 33%, with Goias to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 41%, Botafogo 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Botafogo's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Goias 1.37 PPG, Botafogo 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Goias (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.