Internacional 0-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Internacional at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees RB Bragantino travel to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to take on Internacional. The game is scheduled for Thursday 29 September 2022, 01:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Internacional stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Internacional carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Internacional, 1 for RB Bragantino and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2022, ended 2–0 with Internacional winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Internacional in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 51% versus RB Bragantino 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 45% | RB Bragantino 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 2.08 xG and RB Bragantino 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.382 / defence 0.911 | RB Bragantino attack 1.067 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.899. Internacional carry an above-average attack strength of 1.382 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 65 Internacional games / 65 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 65% | Draw 20% | RB Bragantino 15%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | RB Bragantino 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Internacional (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Internacional 40% | RB Bragantino 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Sep 2022, 01:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 65% | Draw 20% | RB Bragantino 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG Internacional 2.08 / RB Bragantino 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.382 / def 0.911 | RB Bragantino attack 1.067 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.327 / away 0.899 • Poisson stance: Internacional (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.87
RB Bragantino xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Internacional vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 01:45 on Thursday 29 September 2022 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs RB Bragantino?
Internacional 0 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Internacional vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs RB Bragantino part of?
Internacional vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 65% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Internacional and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and RB Bragantino?
Record (2 meetings): Internacional 1W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 1W.
What form are Internacional and RB Bragantino in?
Internacional (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Internacional's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
65%
1.53
20%
5.01
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.96
0.87
RB Bragantino xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
12%
8.02
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
2%
54.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Internacional and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Internacional and 0.87 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs RB Bragantino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Internacional have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 25W 22D 18L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino's form line: 22W 24D 19L from 65 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Internacional on 1.49 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Internacional have posted 1.81 PPG from 32 outings (16W 10D 6L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 9W 10D 13L from 32 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Internacional are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.42 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 25W 22D 18L in their last 65 games (1.49 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 22W 24D 19L in their last 65 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or RB Bragantino away?
Internacional's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.81 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Internacional or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2024, when Internacional won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Internacional's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Internacional
3
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Internacional have won 5, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when RB Bragantino 3-1 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and RB Bragantino?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 56%, RB Bragantino 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Internacional) and 53% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Internacional's games and 56% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Internacional vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Internacional's recent games and 53% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Internacional's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional and RB Bragantino finished level at 0-0 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 2.08 xG and RB Bragantino 0.87 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Internacional fell 2.1 short of their projected output. RB Bragantino landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.38 / defence 0.91 against RB Bragantino attack 1.07 / defence 1.14, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 65% | Draw 20% | RB Bragantino 15%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 45%, RB Bragantino 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.49 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.