Avai 1-2 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Avai vs Botafogo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 30 as Avai welcome Botafogo to Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 October 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Avai — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Avai's home record at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Avai are significantly better at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Botafogo stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Botafogo — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Avai, 0 for Botafogo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2022, ended 1–0 with Avai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Avai in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avai 59% versus Botafogo 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avai 52% | Botafogo 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.17 xG and Botafogo 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 0.852 / defence 1.261 | Botafogo attack 1.082 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 0.905. Data: 29 Avai games / 29 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 35% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 38%. Fair-value odds: Avai 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Botafogo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Avai 70% | Botafogo 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 35% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Avai 1.17 / Botafogo 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 0.852 / def 1.261 | Botafogo attack 1.082 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.326 / away 0.905 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Botafogo xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Botafogo kick off?
Avai vs Botafogo kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Botafogo?
Avai 1 - 2 Botafogo.
Where is Avai vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Botafogo part of?
Avai vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 35% chance of winning, Botafogo a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Avai and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Botafogo?
Record (1 meetings): Avai 1W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 0W.
What form are Avai and Botafogo in?
Avai (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Botafogo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Avai's attack rating (0.85) and Botafogo's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Avai's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
35%
2.89
28%
3.62
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Avai xG
Total xG
2.40
1.23
Botafogo xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Avai and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Avai and 1.23 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Avai come into this having played 29 games, going 7W 7D 15L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Avai on 0.97 PPG, Botafogo on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Avai's home form reads 5W 4D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.50 points per game from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Avai are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avai and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Avai have gone 7W 7D 15L in their last 29 games (0.97 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 10W 7D 12L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avai at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avai at home: 1.36 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Avai
0
Draws
1
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Botafogo?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 1, Botafogo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2022, when Avai 1-2 Botafogo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avai 79%, Botafogo 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Avai) and 36% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avai play Botafogo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Avai's games and 43% of Botafogo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Avai vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Avai's recent games and 36% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Avai and Botafogo tend to score early?
Avai have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Avai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Avai 1-2 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.17 xG and Botafogo 1.23 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 0.85 / defence 1.26 against Botafogo attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 35% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 38%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avai 52%, Botafogo 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avai's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Botafogo's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Avai 0.97 PPG, Botafogo 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.