Fluminense 2-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 3 as Fluminense welcome Vasco DA Gama to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Fluminense have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Vasco DA Gama — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Fluminense) versus 1.50 (Vasco DA Gama). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 0, Vasco DA Gama 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 2–4 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fluminense trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 42% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 42% | Vasco DA Gama 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.62 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.153 / defence 1.152 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.968 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.036. Data: 40 Fluminense games / 40 Vasco DA Gama games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fluminense 48% | Draw 25% | Vasco DA Gama 27%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Vasco DA Gama 3.70. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 60% | Vasco DA Gama 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 48% | Draw 25% | Vasco DA Gama 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Fluminense 1.62 / Vasco DA Gama 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.153 / def 1.152 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.968 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Vasco DA Gama xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Fluminense 2 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 48% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (2 meetings): Fluminense 0W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.15x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
48%
2.09
25%
3.95
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.78
1.16
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
5%
18.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.16 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fluminense come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 8D 14L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Vasco DA Gama sit at 1.18 PPG from 38 outings (12W 9D 17L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.47 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fluminense's home form reads 13W 4D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vasco DA Gama have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (3W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Fluminense's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.26 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Vasco DA Gama have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Fluminense's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Fluminense
1
Draws
4
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 2, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 3-2 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 53%, Vasco DA Gama 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fluminense) and 32% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Fluminense's games and 58% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fluminense's recent games and 32% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Vasco DA Gama 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Vasco DA Gama 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.62 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.16 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.15 / defence 1.15 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 48% | Draw 25% | Vasco DA Gama 27%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 42%, Vasco DA Gama 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.47 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.