Botafogo 5-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juventude make the trip to Estádio Nilton Santos to face Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Botafogo (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Botafogo at Estádio Nilton Santos this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Botafogo are significantly better at Estádio Nilton Santos than their overall form suggests.
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juventude haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Juventude's away record: 0W 0D 10L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Botafogo, 0.30 for Juventude — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Botafogo 0W, Juventude 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Botafogo — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Juventude — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 47% versus Juventude 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 42% | Juventude 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.48 xG and Juventude 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.982 / defence 0.956 | Juventude attack 0.857 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 0.969. Data: 40 Botafogo games / 2 Juventude games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Botafogo 53% | Draw 26% | Juventude 20%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Juventude 5.00. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Botafogo are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Botafogo 70% | Juventude 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 53% | Draw 26% | Juventude 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Botafogo 1.48 / Juventude 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.982 / def 0.956 | Juventude attack 0.857 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.363 / away 0.969 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Juventude xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Juventude kick off?
Botafogo vs Juventude kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Juventude?
Botafogo 5 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Botafogo vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Juventude part of?
Botafogo vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 53% chance of winning, Juventude a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Botafogo and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Juventude?
Record (2 meetings): Botafogo 0W | Draws 2 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Botafogo and Juventude in?
Botafogo (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Juventude (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 0.98x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.86x) against Botafogo's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
53%
1.87
26%
3.79
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.28
0.79
Juventude xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
5%
21.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.79 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Botafogo have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 18W 10D 10L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Juventude's form line: 3W 13D 22L from 38 games, 0.58 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. Juventude haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Botafogo are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Juventude.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Botafogo have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (11W 4D 4L).
On the road, Juventude have gone 1W 4D 14L from 19 away games — 0.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Botafogo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.76 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Juventude in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 18W 10D 10L in their last 38 games (1.68 PPG), while Juventude have gone 3W 13D 22L in their last 38 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Juventude away?
Botafogo's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.95 PPG; Juventude away: 0.37 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Juventude in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Botafogo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 5-1 on 21 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Botafogo
2
Draws
1
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Juventude?
From 6 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 3, Juventude have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Juventude 1-3 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Juventude?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 47%, Juventude 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Botafogo) and 53% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Juventude in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Botafogo's recent matches and 47% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Botafogo's recent games and 53% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Juventude tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Juventude in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Juventude 5-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.48 xG and Juventude 0.79 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Juventude attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 53% | Draw 26% | Juventude 20%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 42%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.