Gremio 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gremio (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gremio face Cuiaba.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gremio host Cuiaba at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gremio's home record at Arena do Grêmio: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena do Grêmio.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Gremio are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Gremio hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Cuiaba, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Gremio winning.
The historical record gives Gremio a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gremio in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 58% versus Cuiaba 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 63% | Cuiaba 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.75 xG and Cuiaba 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.106 / defence 0.840 | Cuiaba attack 0.867 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.033. Data: 40 Gremio games / 39 Cuiaba games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gremio 61% | Draw 24% | Cuiaba 15%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Cuiaba 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Gremio (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 40% | Cuiaba 10% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 61% | Draw 24% | Cuiaba 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 44% | xG Gremio 1.75 / Cuiaba 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.106 / def 0.840 | Cuiaba attack 0.867 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Gremio (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Cuiaba xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Cuiaba kick off?
Gremio vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Cuiaba?
Gremio 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Gremio vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Cuiaba part of?
Gremio vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 61% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gremio and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Cuiaba?
Record (4 meetings): Gremio 3W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Gremio and Cuiaba in?
Gremio (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gremio's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
61%
1.64
24%
4.22
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.50
0.75
Cuiaba xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
3%
37.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Gremio and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Gremio and 0.75 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Cuiaba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gremio come into this having played 38 games, going 21W 5D 12L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.34 PPG from 38 outings (14W 9D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Gremio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gremio's home form reads 14W 2D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (8W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gremio are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 1.05 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 21W 5D 12L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Cuiaba away?
Gremio's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 2.32 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Gremio or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Gremio go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Gremio's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Gremio
1
Draws
0
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Gremio have won 5, Cuiaba have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Cuiaba 1-3 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Cuiaba?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 47%, Cuiaba 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gremio) and 32% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cuiaba in 42%; Cuiaba in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gremio's recent matches and 26% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gremio's recent games and 32% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.75 xG and Cuiaba 0.75 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against Cuiaba attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 61% | Draw 24% | Cuiaba 15%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 63%, Cuiaba 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gremio arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.