Criciuma 1-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Criciuma at 44%, yet in-form Fortaleza EC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fortaleza EC make the trip to Estádio Heriberto Hülse to face Criciuma in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Wednesday 24 July 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Criciuma (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Criciuma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Criciuma have gone 2W 4D 2L this season (8 games, 1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortaleza EC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fortaleza EC arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Criciuma have seen both teams score in 88% of their games, Fortaleza EC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Criciuma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Criciuma 88% and Fortaleza EC 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Criciuma 69% | Fortaleza EC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.49 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 0.973 / defence 1.360 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.828 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.031. Data: 16 Criciuma games / 55 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Criciuma 44% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 29%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Fortaleza EC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Criciuma as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortaleza EC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Criciuma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Criciuma 88% | Fortaleza EC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Jul 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 44% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Criciuma 1.49 / Fortaleza EC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 0.973 / def 1.360 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.828 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Criciuma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Fortaleza EC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 24 July 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC?
Criciuma 1 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 44% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Criciuma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Criciuma and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Fortaleza EC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Criciuma and Fortaleza EC in?
Criciuma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Criciuma's attack at 0.97x the league average against Fortaleza EC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (0.83x) against Criciuma's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 16/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Criciuma Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.75
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.65
1.16
Fortaleza EC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Criciuma and 1.16 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Criciuma have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 5D 7L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Criciuma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 8W 5D 3L from 16 games, 1.81 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortaleza EC are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Criciuma.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Criciuma have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Criciuma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Criciuma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Criciuma are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Criciuma and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Criciuma have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Criciuma at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Criciuma's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Criciuma at home: 1.50 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Criciuma or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Criciuma have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Criciuma
1
Draws
1
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Fortaleza EC?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 0, Fortaleza EC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Criciuma.
Who has won more matches between Criciuma and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Criciuma 83%, Fortaleza EC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Criciuma) and 33% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Criciuma play Fortaleza EC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Criciuma's games and 33% of Fortaleza EC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Criciuma's recent games and 33% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Criciuma and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Criciuma have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Criciuma and Fortaleza EC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 3, as Criciuma and Fortaleza EC drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.49 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 0.97 / defence 1.36 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 44% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 29%, with Criciuma to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Criciuma 69%, Fortaleza EC 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Criciuma's trading profile (16 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (16 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.