Cuiaba 1-0 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cuiaba host Atletico Paranaense at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Cuiaba — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba at Arena Pantanal this season: 1W 3D 3L from 7 home games — 0.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Paranaense have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense's away record: 3W 0D 4L from 7 road trips in Serie A this season (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cuiaba 1.10 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Atletico Paranaense in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cuiaba 57% and Atletico Paranaense 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 43% | Atletico Paranaense 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.12 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 1.011 / defence 1.396 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.001 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 0.890 / away 1.074. Atletico Paranaense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Cuiaba games / 14 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 28% | Draw 26% | Atletico Paranaense 46%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Atletico Paranaense 2.17. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Paranaense are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 71% | Atletico Paranaense 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 28% | Draw 26% | Atletico Paranaense 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Cuiaba 1.12 / Atletico Paranaense 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 1.011 / def 1.396 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.001 / def 1.246 | league avg home 0.890 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Atletico Paranaense xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Cuiaba 1 - 0 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 28% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 1.01x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
28%
3.53
26%
3.89
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.62
1.50
Atletico Paranaense xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
6%
15.81
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.50 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 2W 8D 4L from 14 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 5L across 14 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Paranaense by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cuiaba heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 1W 3D 3L from 7 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 3W 0D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.57 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atletico Paranaense in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 2W 8D 4L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 7W 2D 5L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Atletico Paranaense's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 0.86 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Paranaense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2024, when Atletico Paranaense won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
1
Draws
5
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, Atletico Paranaense have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Atletico Paranaense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 71%, Atletico Paranaense 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Cuiaba) and 57% (Atletico Paranaense). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 29% of games; Atletico Paranaense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Atletico Paranaense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Cuiaba's games and 43% of Atletico Paranaense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Cuiaba's matches and 57% of Atletico Paranaense's.
Do Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Atletico Paranaense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Atletico Paranaense 1-0 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.12 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.50 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Paranaense landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 1.01 / defence 1.40 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.00 / defence 1.25, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 28% | Draw 26% | Atletico Paranaense 46%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 43%, Atletico Paranaense 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Paranaense arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Cuiaba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.