America Mineiro 0-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates America Mineiro at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this America Mineiro vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
America Mineiro host Bahia at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, America Mineiro stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
America Mineiro's home record at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bahia — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
America Mineiro are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. America Mineiro's 30% rate and Bahia's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for America Mineiro, 0 for Bahia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2021, ended 4–3 with America Mineiro winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
America Mineiro trading profile (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bahia trading profile (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 48% versus Bahia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 20% | Bahia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.24 xG and Bahia 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.961 / defence 0.924 | Bahia attack 0.745 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 1.052. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.406 — this is suppressing America Mineiro's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 America Mineiro games / 25 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 47% | Draw 34% | Bahia 20%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Bahia 5.00. America Mineiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates America Mineiro as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on America Mineiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 30% | Bahia 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 47% | Draw 34% | Bahia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG America Mineiro 1.24 / Bahia 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.961 / def 0.924 | Bahia attack 0.745 / def 1.406 | league avg home 0.917 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Bahia xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Bahia kick off?
America Mineiro vs Bahia kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Bahia?
America Mineiro 0 - 0 Bahia.
Where is America Mineiro vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Bahia part of?
America Mineiro vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 47% chance of winning, Bahia a 20% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both America Mineiro and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Bahia?
Record (1 meetings): America Mineiro 1W | Draws 0 | Bahia 0W.
What form are America Mineiro and Bahia in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Bahia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from America Mineiro's attack rating (0.96) and Bahia's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
47%
2.15
34%
2.97
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
1.96
0.72
Bahia xG
2.15
47%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
6%
17.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.72 for Bahia, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
America Mineiro's recent record stands at 7W 10D 8L from 25 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 12L across 25 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: America Mineiro on 1.24 PPG, Bahia on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, America Mineiro have managed 5W 4D 4L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 3W 3D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
America Mineiro are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.12 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Bahia in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 7W 10D 8L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Bahia have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Bahia away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.46 PPG; Bahia away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between America Mineiro and Bahia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
America Mineiro's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
America Mineiro
1
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Bahia?
From 4 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 2, Bahia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when America Mineiro 3-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Bahia?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — America Mineiro 31% BTTS, Bahia 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 8% for America Mineiro and 38% for Bahia.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; America Mineiro have failed to score in 38% of games; Bahia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 38% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 8% of America Mineiro's recent games and 38% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Bahia tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Bahia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at America Mineiro's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro and Bahia finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.24 xG and Bahia 0.72 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. America Mineiro fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.96 / defence 0.92 against Bahia attack 0.74 / defence 1.41, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 47% | Draw 34% | Bahia 20%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 20%, Bahia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bahia's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 1.24 PPG, Bahia 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.