Flamengo 1-2 Avai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Avai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Avai make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Flamengo in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Flamengo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Avai's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Avai's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Flamengo's favour (1.70 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Flamengo 1W, Avai 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Flamengo — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Avai — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 54% versus Avai 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 51% | Avai 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 2.30 xG and Avai 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.307 / defence 0.963 | Avai attack 0.581 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.992. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Avai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Flamengo games / 37 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 77% | Draw 16% | Avai 7%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.30 | Draw 6.25 | Avai 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (77%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 60% | Avai 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 77% | Draw 16% | Avai 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 38% | xG Flamengo 2.30 / Avai 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.307 / def 0.963 | Avai attack 0.581 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.352 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Avai xG
38%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Avai kick off?
Flamengo vs Avai kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Avai?
Flamengo 1 - 2 Avai.
Where is Flamengo vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Avai part of?
Flamengo vs Avai is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 77% chance of winning, Avai a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Flamengo and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Avai?
Record (1 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 0 | Avai 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Avai in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Avai (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.31x the league average against Avai's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Avai's attack (0.58x) against Flamengo's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 3-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
77%
1.30
16%
6.33
7%
13.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
3 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.85
0.56
Avai xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.33
16%
Draw
13.70
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
57%
1.74
10%
9.97
Win to Nil
44%
2.27
1%
136.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.2 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.56 for Avai, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Avai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Flamengo come into this having played 37 games, going 18W 8D 11L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Avai sit at 0.86 PPG from 37 outings (8W 8D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Avai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Flamengo's home form reads 11W 3D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Avai have taken 0.39 points per game from 18 outings (1W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Avai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Flamengo are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Avai are on 0.86 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Avai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Avai in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 18W 8D 11L in their last 37 games (1.68 PPG), while Avai have gone 8W 8D 21L in their last 37 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Avai away?
Flamengo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.00 PPG; Avai away: 0.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Flamengo
0
Draws
1
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 1, Avai have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2022, when Flamengo 1-2 Avai.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 44%, Avai 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Flamengo) and 44% (Avai).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Avai in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Avai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Flamengo's recent matches and 39% of Avai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Avai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Flamengo's recent games and 44% of Avai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Avai tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Avai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Avai defy the odds to beat Flamengo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avai beat Flamengo 1-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.30 xG and Avai 0.56 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Avai outscored their 0.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.31 / defence 0.96 against Avai attack 0.58 / defence 1.30, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 77% | Draw 16% | Avai 7%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a Avai win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 51%, Avai 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Avai's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Avai winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Avai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.