Goias 0-4 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sao Paulo at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Goias vs Sao Paulo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Goias host Sao Paulo at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Goias stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Goias have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sao Paulo have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sao Paulo away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sao Paulo are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Goias have won 0, Sao Paulo 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Goias in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 57% versus Sao Paulo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Goias 43% | Sao Paulo 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 0.89 xG and Sao Paulo 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.743 / defence 1.022 | Sao Paulo attack 1.062 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.000. Goias's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Goias games / 75 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 30% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 40%. Fair-value odds: Goias 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Sao Paulo 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sao Paulo at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Goias 50% | Sao Paulo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 30% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Goias 0.89 / Sao Paulo 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.743 / def 1.022 | Sao Paulo attack 1.062 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sao Paulo xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Goias vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Sao Paulo?
Goias 0 - 4 Sao Paulo.
Where is Goias vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Sao Paulo part of?
Goias vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 30% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Goias and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Sao Paulo?
Record (1 meetings): Goias 0W | Draws 1 | Sao Paulo 0W.
What form are Goias and Sao Paulo in?
Goias (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Sao Paulo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Goias's attack rating (0.74) and Sao Paulo's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sao Paulo's attack versus Goias's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
30%
3.39
31%
3.24
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Goias xG
Total xG
1.98
1.09
Sao Paulo xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.0 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Goias and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Goias and 1.09 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Goias have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 11W 13D 13L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Sao Paulo's form line: 12W 15D 10L from 37 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Goias on 1.24 PPG, Sao Paulo on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Goias have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (6W 8D 4L).
On the road, Sao Paulo have gone 4W 9D 5L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Goias are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.38 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 11W 13D 13L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 12W 15D 10L in their last 37 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Sao Paulo away?
Goias's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 1.44 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Sao Paulo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Goias's record when hosting Sao Paulo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Goias
1
Draws
2
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Sao Paulo?
From 4 meetings on record, Goias have won 1, Sao Paulo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2023, when Goias 2-0 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Goias see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Goias 61%, Sao Paulo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Goias and 33% for Sao Paulo.
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Sao Paulo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Goias's games and 67% of Sao Paulo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Goias vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Goias's recent games and 33% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Goias and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Goias have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sao Paulo run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Goias.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Goias 0-4 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 0.89 xG and Sao Paulo 1.09 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Goias fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sao Paulo outscored their 1.09 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.74 / defence 1.02 against Sao Paulo attack 1.06 / defence 0.89, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 30% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 40%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 43%, Sao Paulo 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Goias 1.24 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Goias (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.