Flamengo 3-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Flamengo and Coritiba meet at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Flamengo have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Coritiba (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Coritiba's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Flamengo. A 0.60 PPG lead over Coritiba (1.70 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Flamengo, 1 for Coritiba and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Coritiba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 55% versus Coritiba 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Coritiba 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.71 xG and Coritiba 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.091 / defence 0.993 | Coritiba attack 0.933 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.087. Data: 38 Flamengo games / 38 Coritiba games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 54% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 22%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Coritiba 4.55. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 70% | Coritiba 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 54% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Flamengo 1.71 / Coritiba 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.091 / def 0.993 | Coritiba attack 0.933 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Coritiba xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Coritiba kick off?
Flamengo vs Coritiba kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Coritiba?
Flamengo 3 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is Flamengo vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Coritiba part of?
Flamengo vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 54% chance of winning, Coritiba a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Flamengo and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Coritiba?
Record (2 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Coritiba in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.09) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (0.93x) against Flamengo's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.14
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.72
1.01
Coritiba xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
25.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.01 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 18W 8D 12L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Coritiba's form line: 12W 6D 20L from 38 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L).
On the road, Coritiba have gone 1W 2D 16L from 19 away games — 0.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.03 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 18W 8D 12L in their last 38 games (1.63 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 12W 6D 20L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Coritiba away?
Flamengo's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.89 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Flamengo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Coritiba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Flamengo
0
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Coritiba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Flamengo 3-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Coritiba?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 47%, Coritiba 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Flamengo) and 58% (Coritiba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Coritiba in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Flamengo's recent matches and 53% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Flamengo's matches and 58% of Coritiba's.
Do Flamengo and Coritiba tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Coritiba 3-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.71 xG and Coritiba 1.01 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coritiba landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Coritiba attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 54% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 22%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Coritiba 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Coritiba's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.