America Mineiro 1-1 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates America Mineiro at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Atletico Goianiense travel to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to take on America Mineiro. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, America Mineiro stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
America Mineiro at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Goianiense have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Atletico Goianiense have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (America Mineiro) versus 1.30 (Atletico Goianiense). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for America Mineiro, 0 for Atletico Goianiense and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with America Mineiro winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Atletico Goianiense in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 43% versus Atletico Goianiense 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 32% | Atletico Goianiense 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.38 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.878 / defence 1.008 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.947 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.000. Data: 75 America Mineiro games / 75 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 47% | Draw 27% | Atletico Goianiense 26%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico Goianiense 3.85. America Mineiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is America Mineiro at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on America Mineiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: America Mineiro 50% | Atletico Goianiense 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 47% | Draw 27% | Atletico Goianiense 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG America Mineiro 1.38 / Atletico Goianiense 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.878 / def 1.008 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.947 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Atletico Goianiense xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense?
America Mineiro 1 - 1 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 47% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (3 meetings): America Mineiro 1W | Draws 2 | Atletico Goianiense 0W.
What form are America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates America Mineiro's attack at 0.88x the league average against Atletico Goianiense's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Goianiense's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.66
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
2.33
0.95
Atletico Goianiense xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
7%
15.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.95 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, America Mineiro have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 28W 21D 26L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Atletico Goianiense's form line: 21W 25D 29L from 75 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: America Mineiro on 1.40 PPG, Atletico Goianiense on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, America Mineiro have posted 1.70 PPG from 37 outings (18W 9D 10L).
On the road, Atletico Goianiense have gone 9W 10D 18L from 37 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
America Mineiro are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.95 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Current Season
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 28W 21D 26L in their last 75 games (1.40 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 21W 25D 29L in their last 75 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.70 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.00 PPG.
Have America Mineiro or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
America Mineiro have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
America Mineiro's record when hosting Atletico Goianiense specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
America Mineiro
3
Draws
0
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense?
From 4 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 1, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2022, when America Mineiro 1-1 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 38%, Atletico Goianiense 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (America Mineiro) and 43% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; America Mineiro have failed to score in 30% of games; Atletico Goianiense in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 51% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of America Mineiro's recent games and 43% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 38, as America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.38 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.95 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.95 / defence 1.17, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 47% | Draw 27% | Atletico Goianiense 26%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 32%, Atletico Goianiense 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 1.40 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.