Palmeiras 2-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host RB Bragantino at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Allianz Parque this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RB Bragantino — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, RB Bragantino have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Palmeiras have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Palmeiras register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RB Bragantino in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 0, RB Bragantino 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2021, ended 2–4 with RB Bragantino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 53% versus RB Bragantino 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 55% | RB Bragantino 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.59 xG and RB Bragantino 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.193 / defence 1.123 | RB Bragantino attack 1.127 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 0.928. Data: 43 Palmeiras games / 44 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 47% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 28%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | RB Bragantino 3.57. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 60% | RB Bragantino 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 47% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Palmeiras 1.59 / RB Bragantino 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.193 / def 1.123 | RB Bragantino attack 1.127 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.338 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.18
RB Bragantino xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Palmeiras 2 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino part of?
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 47% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Palmeiras and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino?
Record (1 meetings): Palmeiras 0W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and RB Bragantino in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.19x the league average against RB Bragantino's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.03
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.77
1.18
RB Bragantino xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
6%
17.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.18 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras come into this having played 38 games, going 20W 6D 12L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.47 PPG from 38 outings (14W 14D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palmeiras on 1.74 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Palmeiras's home form reads 11W 3D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.45 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 20W 6D 12L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 14W 14D 10L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or RB Bragantino away?
Palmeiras's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 1.89 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2025, when Palmeiras won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
3
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 63%, RB Bragantino 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Palmeiras) and 53% (RB Bragantino). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Palmeiras's games and 53% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Palmeiras's matches and 53% of RB Bragantino's.
Do Palmeiras and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over RB Bragantino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat RB Bragantino 2-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.59 xG and RB Bragantino 1.18 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. RB Bragantino landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.19 / defence 1.12 against RB Bragantino attack 1.13 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 47% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 28%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 55%, RB Bragantino 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 1.74 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palmeiras win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.