Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chapecoense-sc face Gremio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gremio make the trip to Arena Condá to face Chapecoense-sc in Serie A (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 23:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Gremio's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Gremio's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Gremio edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Nov 2021, ended Chapecoense-sc 1–3 Gremio — a Gremio win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 2.00 xG and Gremio 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 1.254 / defence 1.350 | Gremio attack 0.986 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.153. Chapecoense-sc carry an above-average attack rating of 1.254 — their 2.00 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Chapecoense-sc's defence rating of 1.350 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gremio's projected output up. Data: built from Chapecoense-sc's last 4 games and Gremio's last 43.
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 49% | Draw 22% | Gremio 30%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 2.06 | Draw 4.63 | Gremio 3.35. Chapecoense-sc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.00 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chapecoense-sc as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 6 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 49% | Draw 22% | Gremio 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Chapecoense-sc 2.00 / Gremio 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 1.254 / def 1.350 | Gremio attack 0.986 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Gremio xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio FAQs
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Monday 16 March 2026 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 6) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 49% chance of winning, Gremio a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Gremio will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chapecoense-sc's attack at 1.25x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.99x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from Chapecoense-sc's last 4 games and Gremio's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
49%
2.06
22%
4.63
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
3.53
1.53
Gremio xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
4%
24.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.53 for Gremio, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Gremio
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Chapecoense-sc (Home) vs Gremio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Gremio
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Gremio?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Gremio have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Gremio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Gremio 3-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chapecoense-sc and Gremio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 6, as Chapecoense-sc and Gremio drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 2.00 xG and Gremio 1.53 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 1.25 / defence 1.35 against Gremio attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 4/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 49% | Draw 22% | Gremio 30%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.