Santos 2-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Atletico Paranaense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atletico Paranaense make the trip to Estádio Urbano Caldeira to face Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Tuesday 6 July 2021 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Santos (all games): 3W 3D 3L across 9 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos have gone 3W 2D 0L this season (5 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.33 — Santos are significantly better at Estádio Urbano Caldeira than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Paranaense have collected 2.38 PPG across 8 Serie A outings this season: 6W 1D 1L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense away from home this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atletico Paranaense are 1.05 PPG clear of Santos in recent Serie A fixtures (2.38 vs 1.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 25% versus Atletico Paranaense 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 25% | Atletico Paranaense 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.09 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.104 / defence 0.813 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.279 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 0.913 / away 1.068. Atletico Paranaense have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 1.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Santos games / 8 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 35% | Draw 29% | Atletico Paranaense 36%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico Paranaense 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Paranaense are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Santos 20% | Atletico Paranaense 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jul 2021, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 35% | Draw 29% | Atletico Paranaense 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Santos 1.09 / Atletico Paranaense 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.104 / def 0.813 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.279 / def 1.085 | league avg home 0.913 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Atletico Paranaense xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 23:30 on Tuesday 6 July 2021 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
Santos 2 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Santos vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 35% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Santos and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Atletico Paranaense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santos and Atletico Paranaense in?
Santos (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 6W-1D-1L in 8 | 2.38 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Santos's attack rating (1.10) and Atletico Paranaense's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (1.28x) against Santos's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
35%
2.87
29%
3.41
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Santos xG
Total xG
2.20
1.11
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Santos and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Santos and 1.11 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Santos's recent record stands at 3W 3D 2L from 8 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 1L across 8 games — 2.38 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Paranaense by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Santos have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Santos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 3W 0D 1L across 4 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Santos are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 2.00 scored and 0.88 conceded. Atletico Paranaense's attacking output running into Santos's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Santos have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Atletico Paranaense in 62%.
Defensively: Santos have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Atletico Paranaense in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 6W 1D 1L in their last 8 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Atletico Paranaense's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 2.00 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Santos or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Paranaense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 3-0 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Santos
2
Draws
2
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Atletico Paranaense?
From 7 meetings on record, Santos have won 3, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Atletico Paranaense?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Santos tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Santos) and 50% (Atletico Paranaense) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Santos) and 75% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Atletico Paranaense in 50%; Santos have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Santos's recent matches and 50% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Santos's recent games and 75% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santos defy the odds to beat Atletico Paranaense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Atletico Paranaense 2-1 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.09 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.11 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Santos beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.10 / defence 0.81 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.28 / defence 1.08, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 35% | Draw 29% | Atletico Paranaense 36%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Santos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 25%, Atletico Paranaense 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Paranaense arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Santos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.