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Poisson rates Mirassol at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs Ceara encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 35 as Mirassol welcome Ceara to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 November 2025 at 22:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Mirassol have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Mirassol's home record at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ceara stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Ceara have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Mirassol carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mirassol, 0 for Ceara and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2025, ended 2–0 with Mirassol winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Mirassol in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Ceara in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 62% versus Ceara 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mirassol 47% | Ceara 26%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.42 xG and Ceara 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.226 / defence 0.903 | Ceara attack 0.748 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.018. Data: 34 Mirassol games / 34 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mirassol 55% | Draw 27% | Ceara 18%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Ceara 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mirassol 70% | Ceara 40%.

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