Mirassol 3-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs Ceara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 35 as Mirassol welcome Ceara to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 November 2025 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Mirassol have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mirassol's home record at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ceara stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Ceara have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Mirassol carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mirassol, 0 for Ceara and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2025, ended 2–0 with Mirassol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mirassol in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Ceara in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 62% versus Ceara 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mirassol 47% | Ceara 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.42 xG and Ceara 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.226 / defence 0.903 | Ceara attack 0.748 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.018. Data: 34 Mirassol games / 34 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 55% | Draw 27% | Ceara 18%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Ceara 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mirassol 70% | Ceara 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Monday 24 Nov 2025, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 55% | Draw 27% | Ceara 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 38% | xG Mirassol 1.42 / Ceara 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.226 / def 0.903 | Ceara attack 0.748 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Ceara xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Ceara kick off?
Mirassol vs Ceara kicked off at 22:00 on Monday 24 November 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Ceara?
Mirassol 3 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Mirassol vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Ceara part of?
Mirassol vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 55% chance of winning, Ceara a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Mirassol and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Ceara?
Record (1 meetings): Mirassol 1W | Draws 0 | Ceara 0W.
What form are Mirassol and Ceara in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Ceara (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mirassol's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Ceara's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.67
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.11
0.69
Ceara xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
4%
22.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.69 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Ceara?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Mirassol have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 16W 12D 6L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Ceara's form line: 11W 9D 14L from 34 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Mirassol are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ceara.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mirassol have posted 2.29 PPG from 17 outings (11W 6D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ceara have gone 4W 5D 8L from 17 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mirassol are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 0.94 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Ceara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Ceara in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 16W 12D 6L in their last 34 games (1.76 PPG), while Ceara have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Ceara away?
Mirassol's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.29 PPG; Ceara away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Ceara in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mirassol and Ceara runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Mirassol
0
Draws
0
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Ceara?
From 2 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 2, Ceara have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2025, when Mirassol 3-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Ceara?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Ceara see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 71%, Ceara 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Mirassol) and 35% (Ceara).
On the defensive side: Ceara in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Ceara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Mirassol's games and 41% of Ceara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Mirassol's recent games and 35% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Ceara tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Ceara in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mirassol run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ceara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Ceara 3-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.42 xG and Ceara 0.69 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.23 / defence 0.90 against Ceara attack 0.75 / defence 0.81, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 55% | Draw 27% | Ceara 18%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, Ceara 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Ceara's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.