Botafogo 5-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Botafogo face Juventude.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juventude make the trip to Estádio Nilton Santos to face Botafogo in Serie A (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Form
Botafogo (all games): 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Botafogo at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Botafogo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Juventude's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juventude's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 0D 10L (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Botafogo, 0.30 for Juventude — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Botafogo, 0 for Juventude and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Aug 2022, ended Botafogo 2–2 Juventude — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Botafogo — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Juventude — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 83%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 47% versus Juventude 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 42% | Juventude 50%). Note also that Juventude surrender HT leads in 83% of cases while Botafogo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.48 xG and Juventude 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.982 / defence 0.956 | Juventude attack 0.857 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 0.969. Data: built from Botafogo's last 40 games and Juventude's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Botafogo 53% | Draw 26% | Juventude 20%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.87 | Draw 3.79 | Juventude 4.98. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Botafogo are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though recent form (Botafogo's last 10 home games and Juventude's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Botafogo 70% (last 10 home games) | Juventude 30% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Botafogo 40 games, Juventude 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, matchday 3 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 53% | Draw 26% | Juventude 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Botafogo 1.48 / Juventude 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.982 / def 0.956 | Juventude attack 0.857 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.363 / away 0.969 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Juventude xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Botafogo vs Juventude FAQs
What time does Botafogo vs Juventude kick off?
Botafogo vs Juventude kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Juventude?
Botafogo 5 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Botafogo vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Juventude part of?
Botafogo vs Juventude is a Serie A fixture (matchday 3) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 53% chance of winning, Juventude a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Botafogo and Juventude will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Botafogo vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 0.98x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.86x) against Botafogo's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Botafogo's last 40 games and Juventude's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
53%
1.87
26%
3.79
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.28
0.79
Juventude xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
5%
21.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Botafogo vs Juventude Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.79 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Botafogo have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 18W 10D 10L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Juventude's form line: 3W 13D 22L from 38 games, 0.58 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Botafogo are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Juventude.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Botafogo have posted 1.95 PPG from their last 19 home games (11W 4D 4L).
On the road, Juventude have gone 1W 4D 14L from their last 19 away games — 0.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Botafogo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.76 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
Botafogo (Home) vs Juventude (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Botafogo
Current Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
❓ Botafogo vs Juventude Form FAQs
What form are Botafogo and Juventude in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 18W 10D 10L in their last 38 games (1.68 PPG), while Juventude have gone 3W 13D 22L in their last 38 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Juventude away?
Botafogo's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.95 PPG; Juventude away: 0.37 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Juventude in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Botafogo and Juventude, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 24 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Botafogo have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won Botafogo 5-1 Juventude on 21 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Botafogo
2
Draws
1
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Botafogo vs Juventude H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Juventude?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Botafogo have won 3, Juventude have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Juventude last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2025: Juventude 1-3 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Juventude?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 47%, Juventude 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Botafogo) and 53% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Juventude in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Botafogo vs Juventude Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Botafogo and Juventude matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Botafogo's recent matches and 47% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Botafogo and Juventude matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Botafogo's recent games and 53% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Juventude matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Botafogo's recent matches and 74% of Juventude's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Juventude 5-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.48 xG and Juventude 0.79 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Juventude attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 53% | Draw 26% | Juventude 20%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 42%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.