RB Bragantino 0-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid plays host to RB Bragantino versus Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 July 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Botafogo (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for RB Bragantino, 1.30 for Botafogo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
RB Bragantino — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Botafogo — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 57% versus Botafogo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (RB Bragantino 36% | Botafogo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.61 xG and Botafogo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.070 / defence 1.031 | Botafogo attack 1.052 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 0.991. Data: 52 RB Bragantino games / 14 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 49% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 24%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Botafogo 4.17. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Bragantino at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 40% | Botafogo 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Jul 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 49% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG RB Bragantino 1.61 / Botafogo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.070 / def 1.031 | Botafogo attack 1.052 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.292 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Botafogo xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Botafogo kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Botafogo kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 5 July 2022 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Botafogo?
RB Bragantino 0 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Botafogo part of?
RB Bragantino vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 49% chance of winning, Botafogo a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both RB Bragantino and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Botafogo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Botafogo in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Botafogo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.05x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.74
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.69
1.07
Botafogo xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
5%
20.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.07 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Bragantino come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 6D 4L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.29 for Botafogo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
RB Bragantino's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.14 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Botafogo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Botafogo in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Botafogo away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.57 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Botafogo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 4-1 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
7
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Botafogo?
From 9 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 1, Botafogo have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when RB Bragantino 1-2 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 43%, Botafogo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (RB Bragantino) and 43% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino have failed to score in 29% of games; Botafogo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 57% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 43% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Botafogo tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Botafogo defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat RB Bragantino 0-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.61 xG and Botafogo 1.07 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Botafogo attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 49% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 24%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Botafogo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 36%, Botafogo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Botafogo's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.29 PPG, Botafogo 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.